Vintage Games & Their Progeny Dominate 2014
The NPD Group’s ranking of Top 10 video game titles for 2014 contains two Call of Duty titles (Activision), sports titles in the perennial Madden NFL (Electronic Arts), NBA 2K (Take-Two Interactive) and FIFA franchises (EA), Grand Theft Auto V (Take-Two) and Nintendo’s Super Smash Bros. With the exception of Call of Duty, these properties were first introduced numerous console generations ago, back in the 20th century. As for the remainder of the list, Minecraft (Microsoft) is several years old. There were just two IPs introduced from 2014 on the list: Ubisoft’s Watch Dogs and Activision’s Destiny.
More Original Games Slated for 2015
While 2014 was all about oldies but goodies, analysis of titles announced or displayed at June’s Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3) in Los Angeles and set for release in September 2015 and beyond shows a bit of an original turn. Meanwhile, of the 78 games The Licensing Letter lists as having licensing potential in the chart below, 31% are original IP, up from 24% last year. At the same time, sequels account for just 53% of the listed titles, down from 61% in 2014.
The week before E3, video game publishers including Activision, Electronics Arts, Sony Computer Entertainment and Ubisoft displayed new and established brands to potential license partners at Licensing Expo 2015, causing one Expo veteran to remark on the change from the days when game companies only attended to find properties to license for games, rather than offering their own game brands to be licensed out.
Retail sales of licensed merchandise based on video game properties in the U.S. and Canada fell 4% in 2014, to $575 million, according to The Licensing Letter Annual Business Survey. That’s likely due less to a loss of consumer interest in videogame properties overall as unsustainable sales of products tied to the Angry Birds mobile game franchise (which makes up a huge chunk of the video game property type segment), and overall sluggishness in software sales resulting from the latest console transitions.
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Judging Original Properties’ Potential
While sequels, reboots, graphical updates and games based on licensed properties all provide licensees a track record, new properties are considerably more difficult to judge. Although there is definitely risk, new IP may also have a great upside. Activision’s Destiny provides an example of new IP’s considerable potential. From developer Bungie, which also produces Activision’s Halo series, Destiny bowed last September with more than $500 million in sales into retail stores worldwide on its first day in release, making it the largest launch of a new video game franchise in history. The game, in which players take the role of guardians who protect the last human city on Earth, has more than 20 million registered users, making it easy to see the property’s appeal to licensees. BioWorld and Game UK (both apparel and accessories), Insight Editions (art books, journals and posters), BradyGames (strategy guides) and World 3A Toys (collectible figures) are among Destiny’s licensees.
Activision reportedly spent more than $500 million to make and market the title, making it hard to draw parallels between Destiny and the new crop of original releases coming to market. New titles that TLL considers as having strong licensing potential, however, include Yoshi’s Woolly World, coming in October from Nintendo, and Unravel, due this year from Electronic Arts. Both games tap into the current handcrafting craze, with players in Yoshi’s Woolly World knitting new paths to collectibles. In Unravel, which some press reports tabbed the most charming game at E3, a character made from a single strand of yarn unravels as you play.
Licensing In
With the notable exception of Star Wars, there’s hardly a movie or TV tie-in game to be found on the TLL list. Nevertheless, releasing titles based on licensed properties, particularly sports, remains a core strategy for publishers.
- Electronic Arts, the leader in sports games, replaced Tiger Woods as headliner for its PGA golf franchise and is releasing Rory McIlroy PGA Tour this summer, as well as Madden NFL 16. September brings EA’s NBA Live 16, with a new feature that lets game players scan their face into the game to personalize playable characters.
- Take-Two Interactive hired filmmaker Spike Lee to write and direct a new MyCareer mode for its NBA 2K16. A special edition features Michael Jordan on the cover. Standard edition covers carry Stephen Curry, James Harden or Anthony Davis.
- Tom Clancy’s The Division, coming in early 2016, is a completely new shooter role-playing game from Ubisoft that will draw on the Clancy credibility in the genre.
- EA, new master video game licensee for Star Wars, has both Star Wars: Battlefront for consoles and Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes for mobile platforms coming out prior to the theatrical release of Star Wars: The Force Awakens in December.
New Sequels & Reboots
In the coming year and beyond, loyal gamers will be rewarded with several sequels that have been a very, very long time in the making. Among them:
- Bethesda Softworks is eyeing a 2016 launch for Marsset Doom (originally known as Doom 4), which will reboot a classic franchise that hasn’t seen a new installment since Doom 3 in 2004.
- Square Enix is working on both a long-anticipated HD remake of 1997’s Final Fantasy VII and World of Final Fantasy a brand new game spinoff with cutesy versions of classic FF characters.
- Harmonix and Activision will resuscitate the music genre with their reboots Rock Band 4 and Guitar Hero Live, respectively. Both are due in October, after five years without a gig for either franchise.
New Toys to Life Games
The toys to life category, in which electronically wired toy figurines interact with and within the video game, continues to grow and spawn new competition. Activision’s Skylanders, which pioneered the category in 2011, has sold more than 250 million toys worldwide and is in every key licensing category, according to the company. Its newest game, Skylanders Superchargers, is due in September, with classic Nintendo characters Donkey Kong and Bowser included. Other notable new games in the category:
- Disney’s Disney Infinity 3.0, which focuses on Star Wars, comes to retail for the 2015 holiday season.
- Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment will soon enter the category with Lego Dimensions, which combines Lego building with multiple franchises including DC Comics, The Lord of the Rings and Back to the Future.
- Nintendo will continue to use its amiibo figures with games, including Animal Crossing: amiibo Festival.