By Gary Symons
TLL Editor in Chief
Global food and beverage sales are holding firm in 2025, with Circana LLC reporting performance in line with earlier forecasts despite economic uncertainty, stubborn inflation in select commodities and evolving consumer behavior.
The company’s newly released Circana Compass insights offer a detailed look at the global retail food and beverage sector in 2025 and a forward-looking outlook for 2026. At the same time, Circana’s 40th annual Eating Patterns in America report sheds light on how Americans are navigating change in their daily eating and drinking habits.
Together, the findings point to an industry in flux but also resilient, with consumers adapting to shifting economic, social and lifestyle forces.
U.S. market growth aligns with forecasts
Circana had projected U.S. dollar sales growth between 2% and 4% for 2025. Current estimates put sales growth at 3.2%, supported by a 3% rise in price and product mix and a modest 0.2% increase in volume. The results closely match prior expectations.
Higher commodity prices in areas such as cocoa and coffee pushed inflation in certain categories, but most food and beverage prices grew at a more moderate pace.
“Consumers are prioritizing in-home food and beverage spending while redefining ‘value’ with an emphasis on convenience and functionality,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, Circana’s global executive vice president and chief advisor. “With these evolving behaviors, the CPG industry must strategically identify ways to stimulate demand and remain profitable.”
More than 40% of EMEA Consumers Choosing Private Label
A more worrying trend for the licensing industry is the continuing shift away from licensed brands to private label or store brands, particularly in the EMEA region.
In Europe, the Middle East and Africa, full-year F&B growth is expected to reach 4% in value, driven largely by rising demand for private-label brands, which now make up 41% of retail sales. Notably, this trend has persisted despite fewer promotions, suggesting consumers are leaning into affordability and store-brand alternatives.
That’s obviously an issue for the licensing industry, and an indication that global F&B brands need to pay some attention to pricing concerns in the EMEA market over the coming years.
Peter Cross, Vice President of Strategic Partnerships at Broad Street Licensing Group, says food and restaurant brands would do well to work with established partners and agencies to extend their brands globally through licensing, which can both enhance revenue and provide additional marketing.
That is especially true in a climate of economic uncertainty amid a global trade war, where concerns about international brand reputation carry heightened importance.
For example, Cross notes that Broad Street’s work with the restaurant brand Tony Roma provides a compelling example of how to establish global reach. Despite the restaurant chain having just two U.S. locations, Broad Street successfully revitalized its retail program domestically and expanded it across Europe, Asia, Mexico, and Australia.
Notably, they also forged a first-of-its-kind exclusive partnership with Walmart Japan.
“It’s about strategically extending a brand’s essence into categories that create genuine consumer excitement,” Cross said. “That excitement gives consumers a value-added reason-to-buy.”
In Asia-Pacific, value growth of 3.7% up to mid-year was supported by unit growth of 1.4%, with Circana projecting 1.6% growth by year-end as price stability takes hold. While consumer confidence dipped more than expected, macroeconomic indicators—particularly in Australia—remain strong. Circana anticipates households will move from “trading down” to “trading up” in the second half of the year as fiscal and monetary policies ease budget pressures.
Circana projects U.S. food and beverage prices will continue to rise in 2026, with price and mix gains between 3% and 5%. That follows a 34% cumulative increase in average retail prices over the past five years.
Volume growth is expected to remain flat, ranging between -1% and 1%. Overall dollar sales are forecast to grow between 3% and 5%, a signal of continued resilience in the sector.
Consumers balance uncertainty and resilience
The company’s Eating Patterns in America report—covering more than $1.7 trillion in spending across 618 billion eating and drinking occasions—paints a detailed picture of how Americans are adapting their food choices.
“There are two words I will use to describe the current state of consumer behavior today: uncertainty and resilience,” said David Portalatin, Circana’s senior vice president and food industry advisor. “There are several elements like tariffs, immigration policy, and the narrative around the purity and quality of our food supply that seem to make the future uncertain. But despite the uncertainty, there are signs that consumers and the economy are resilient.
“Midway through 2025 inflation is relatively low, employment is strong, and food and beverage spending is still growing around 3% versus a year ago.”
Blurring the line between meals and snacks
One defining trend is versatility. Consumers increasingly expect foods and beverages to fit into multiple roles, blurring distinctions between traditional meals and snacks. People are seeking convenient, multifunctional options to sustain them throughout the day, with demand heightened by new work routines.
The return-to-office movement, with average office occupancy rising to 52% in 2025 from 49% a year earlier, has fueled demand for portable options. Morning meal traffic at foodservice locations increased in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first uptick since mid-2023.
Protein remains a strong driver of consumer choice, with 41% of adults reporting they are actively trying to increase intake. Products carrying protein claims are outperforming those without, further underscoring the central role of health in purchase decisions.
At the same time, many consumers are gravitating toward what Circana calls a “return to purity.” Nearly three in 10 adults now avoid artificial sweeteners, while one-quarter steer clear of artificial colors and flavors. Ultra-processed foods are also falling out of favor, reflecting heightened demand for more natural, premium or functional ingredients.
These trends mirror the “Make America Healthy Again” narrative in public discourse, as shoppers seek cleaner ingredient lists and higher perceived quality in their everyday purchases.
Key drivers for the industry
Circana identifies three overarching forces shaping the global food and beverage industry going forward: value, health and demographics.
Value is becoming increasingly personalized, but consumers consistently favor mass, club and value retailers. E-commerce continues to expand, supported by investments from the largest retail players.
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Health-conscious choices are shifting market dynamics, with consumers adjusting protein intake, reducing alcohol and snack consumption, and gravitating toward products with premium, wellness-oriented attributes.
Demographics are also playing a critical role. Slower immigration, declining birth rates and tighter budgets in lower-income and Hispanic households are influencing category performance and shaping future growth opportunities.
A balancing act ahead
Taken together, the findings suggest the industry is facing a balancing act: maintaining profitability amid tight volumes, delivering affordability while responding to heightened health and wellness expectations, and navigating demographic shifts that will continue to reshape demand.
“Consumers are showing both uncertainty and resilience,” Portalatin said. “The challenge for the industry is to anticipate their evolving needs and provide value in ways that are meaningful across diverse household circumstances.”
With dollar sales growth projected to remain in positive territory and volume trends showing signs of stability, Circana says the sector remains fundamentally resilient, even as manufacturers and retailers adjust strategies for a new era of value-driven, health-conscious consumption.
The full Circana Compass and Eating Patterns in America reports are available here at Circana Reports.